for provided plays. Returns the data with probabilities of winning the game. The following columns must be present: receive_h2_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise), home_team, posteam, half_seconds_remaining, game_seconds_remaining, spread_line (how many points home team was favored by), down, ydstogo, yardline_100, posteam_timeouts_remaining, defteam_timeouts_remaining
Value
The original pbp_data with the following columns appended to it:
- wp
win probability.
- vegas_wp
win probability taking into account pre-game spread.
Details
Computes win probability for provided plays. Returns the data with spread and non-spread-adjusted win probabilities. The following columns must be present:
receive_2h_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise)
score_differential
home_team
posteam
half_seconds_remaining
game_seconds_remaining
spread_line (how many points home team was favored by)
down
ydstogo
yardline_100
posteam_timeouts_remaining
defteam_timeouts_remaining
Examples
# \donttest{
try({# to avoid CRAN test problems
library(dplyr)
data <- tibble::tibble(
"receive_2h_ko" = 0,
"home_team" = "SEA",
"posteam" = "SEA",
"score_differential" = 0,
"half_seconds_remaining" = 1800,
"game_seconds_remaining" = 3600,
"spread_line" = c(1, 3, 4, 7, 14),
"down" = 1,
"ydstogo" = 10,
"yardline_100" = 75,
"posteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3,
"defteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3
)
nflfastR::calculate_win_probability(data) |>
dplyr::select(spread_line, wp, vegas_wp)
})
#> # A tibble: 5 × 3
#> spread_line wp vegas_wp
#> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
#> 1 1 0.546 0.515
#> 2 3 0.546 0.596
#> 3 4 0.546 0.638
#> 4 7 0.546 0.737
#> 5 14 0.546 0.866
# }